Baseball: Handicapping The Pitchers

Years ago you could handicap 75% of the game just based on the starting pitchers. Not so any more. Today we have “early relievers”, “set up relievers”, “middle relievers”, “long relievers” and closers. It is very rare to see a pitcher with more than 4 or 5 complete games in a season. To handicap the pitchers (defense) in a baseball game, you must now keep daily records on all relievers, keeping track of who is available in the bullpen for a particular game and who is not, and adjust the power number for the bullpen accordingly. A statistical formula for rating pitchers does not include and ERA anymore. The formula must be actual and not assumed based on a nine inning game as is the ERA.

The first stat that must be determined is how many actual innings per game the starting pitcher averages per start. (innings pitched divided by games started). Starting pitchers previous stats when in a relief role are not included in the formula so it is imperative you keep stats on only the games he has started and not use his overall stats as are what is usually published in the stat sections of papers or websites. The next part of the formulas is to get the actual number of “earned runs” given up per innings pitched. (earned runs divided by innings pitched). This will give you the actual number of runs this pitcher is expected to give up and the number of innings he is expected to pitch. So if a pitcher has started say 10 games and has 70 innings pitched and has given up say 20 earned runs in those 10 starts, we can assume he will pitch 7 innings, give up .285 runs per inning resulting in his giving up 1.99 or 2.00 runs in this game. This means the bullpen would be pitching 2 innings of this game and using the same formula for the active or available bullpen, let’s say the bullpen gives up .335 runs for every inning pitched, then they would be expected to give up .67 runs in this game for an overall of 2.67 runs to be scored by the opponent with this starting pitcher and this available bullpen. You must now allow for the “unearned runs” given up by a team… Let’s say that in those 10 games, the team gave up 4 unearned runs. That means that the team will be expected to give up .40 unearned runs, now bringing the total the opponents are expected to score at 3.07 runs.

Starting pitchers stats can be extended to include games played at night, on grass, on turf, daytime, but I find it not necessary. However you should include the difference in the ball parks. For example: if the overall average runs by a visiting team throughout the league is say 5.4 and a team is visiting a ball park with an average of say 6.4, then the pitcher stat has to be adjusted by one run.

Handicapping baseball, if done properly, takes an enormous amount of time, but it is the most profitable of all betting sports.... Don't have the time but want to make money...follow our daily selections at: TonyDiamond.com

Final Four Is Set..Who Can Beat UNC...???

It wasn’t an earth shattering prediction that I picked NC to win my bracket this year, probably 80% of the people also picked them. They were #1 at the beginning and currently are the odds on favorite to win it all…Nothing I see now that the final four is in place has changed my opinion. I just don’t see anyone pulling off an upset win. Following is my T-Rating Lines for the Semi Final games and also the lines for the probable championship matchups.

Here Are My Lines For The Semi Final Games..
Michigan State vs Connecticut….Favorite: Connecticut
T-Rating Line: -3.3
Villanova vs North Carolins……..Favorite: N. Carolina
T-Rating Line: -6.4
My Lines For Championship Game Possibilities….
Michigan State vs Villanova……..Favorite: None…………
T-Rating Line: Pick
Michigan State vs N. Carolina….Favorite: N. Carolina
T-Rating Line: -6.3
Connecticut vs Villanova………… Favorite: Connecticut
T-Rating Line: -3.4
Connecticut vs N. Carolina……… Favorite: N. Carolina
T-Rating Line: -3.0

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Looks Like Villanova Is For Real

Although the win last night over Pittsburgh as a 2 point dog was not nearly as impressive as their 23 point upset win against Duke on Thursday, it was still a quality win. Unfortunately for them I believe the buck stops here.

Hard pressed to find a good solid value play in the college hoops today, the linesmakers are right on the money with these two games. The heavy hitters are really pounding the money line with Louisville and N. Carolina, both figure to win easily but am really hesitant about laying 350.00 to win a 100.00, especially the way these tourny games have been going.

We had another winning night last night for our members, we went 2-1 with wins on Houston at -15 and Uconn at -5.5...we lost our play on the Knicks. We have now run off 4 straight winning days...Our free play is now on a 3 day win streak..get Sunday's play at: TonyDiamond.com

Nice Friday

We had a very good night on Friday with our member selections going 3-0 in the NBA. We had Orlando -12, Memphis +3.0 which was a straight up winner by 18 points and we had the Minnesota/Cleveland game to go over the 191 total. We lost our college play with Gonzaga. I just figure that to be a much closer game.

Tough picking in the college today. The linesmaker appears to have hit the line right on the number. I have Pitt by 1.5 the line is 2.0 and I have UConn at -4.0 and line is -5.0... I do have two plays in the NBA.

I guess we will find out tonight if Villanova is for real... Get my free play today at: Saturday's Free Play
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Is Villanova For Real?

Wow, I expected the Villanova/Duke game to be a toss up, but never expected that Villanova dominate and end up winning 24 points! I know Duke isn't the same team as years past, but to be totally outplayed from start to finish was a real shocker.

The Missouri upset was a surprise to me, I expected Memphis to win that quite easily. In fact we had a play on Memphis. We did have a 2-1 night with winners on Xavier at +7.5 and our Play-of-the-Day was as easy a winner as we had all year with the Missouri/Memphis game going over the total of 141.5. The total ended up at 193.0.

I have 3 plays in the NBA tonight and one in the NCAA tourney...I also have released a free play today... you can get it at Friday Free Play or go to tonydiamond.com

Thursday Sweet Sixteen

Will Pittsburgh play true to form..?? Can UConn live up to it's billing..?? These are very difficult questions to answer with these two teams. Both have shown inconsistencies this season and to handicap these games is very difficult because your just not sure which team will show up on any given night.

Will the Xavier team show up that beat a very good Wisconsin team by 11 points, or the team that was upset by Richmond and Temple in a one week span...

Connecticut has won their last 5 of 6 but failed to cover the spread in their last three. They were upset by W. Virginia in the opening round of the conference tournament losing that game by 14 points as a 4.5 favorite.

The best game of the night should be the Villanova / Duke game. This figures to be very competitive and with the line at 2.5 I figure this could go either way....Memphis should be able to handle the spread against Missouri but this could be a very high scoring game. Both teams like to run the floor.

I believe Duke, Pitt, Memphis and Uconn get the wins, but covering the spreads are a different story...

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Are The Cavs Just Coasting..?

The Cav's are locked into the playoffs and hold a 4 game lead over Boston for the top spot in the East, and I am just wondering whether coach Brown has managed the sidelines a little differently lately giving some starters more rest time. The line tonight is -12.0 over New Jersey, the Cavs have not beat anyone by 12 points since going clear back to Feb 24th when they beat lowly memphis 94-79.

Although they are currently on a nice win streak, they are not "beating up" on anyone as they have only covered 3 spreads in their last 10 games. Tonights meeting is a back to back against the Nets as their last game they won in New Jersey on Sunday 96-88. Under these situations I think maybe 12 points might be a bit much...There is a trend also in back to backs where the team that lost the first of back to backs will cover the second about 65% of the time....

Looks like a play on the Net's and maybe a nice teaser. www.tonydiamond.com

Guaranteed Tuesday

Today is our Diamond Club Guaranteed Tuesday....Sign up for our one day daily selections package and if we don't have a winning day, then you get your subscription fee refunded...

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Complimentay Play

I am giving out a free play today...get it here... Today' Complimentary Play

Sweet Sixteen Is Set

The Sweet sixteen is all set and from the predictions I made before the tourney started, I was correct on 12 of the 16...Not bad for some standards but not good for me....I didn't hit one of my predicted upsets....

The four that I missed were West Virginia, Wake Forest, Wisconsin and UCLA.... Kansas, Arizona, Xavier and Villanova were ones I did not pick....

NIT tonight and I am leaning toward both dogs tonight....Kentucky +2.0 and Davidson +4.5...Still doing some research, and will have the final decision posted shortly on the member site.

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More True To Form On Saturday

After seeing six upsets on Friday's NCAA schedule, play got back to normal as there was only one upset on Saturday and that was a small one with Purdue beating Washington 76-74 as a 1.5 underdog, hardly even considered an upset...

My upset prediction of the day went up in a puff of smoke. I thought UCLA would have a shot at upsetting Villanova and they got blown away by 20 points 89-69. Overall we went 3-3 in our selections but did hit our guaranteed play of the day again, putting us on a 4-1 run over the past 5 days. Our play was on Texas +7.5 over Duke.

My one upset pick for Sunday, would be Wisconsin over Xavier, but it is not an overwhelming confidence pick. Taking 4 points with the badgers might not be a bad play....

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Upset Friday..Lots of Brackets are ruined

There are probably a lot of people sitting around the water cooler scratching their heads and wondering "what went wrong". Many office pool brackets have been ruined as there were six upsets in the second day of round one of the NCAA tourny. The biggest of all was probably Cleveland St a #13 seed putting a whipping on #4 seed and 8 point favorite Wake Forest 84-69. The other somewhat shocker was #11 seed Dayton upsetting #6 seed W. Virginia 68-60 as a 9 point dog. Siena was a mild upset as was Arizona over Utah and Oklahoma St over Tennessee.

Wisconsin was our play of the day and we did catch the winner as they upset Florida St 61-59. There were some very exciting games especially the Ohio State game and the Wisconsin game as both went into overtime. Utah St came within one point of upsetting Marquette going down 58-57. The only upset possibility I see today is a small one, as UCLA is a 2 point dog to Villanova.
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My Bracket Busters

Our betting selections went 2-1 on Thursday with a winner on our Play of the Day (Maryland), but I had a few teams who really blew my brackets for me....I picked Mississippi St as one of my upset picks but I also went down with Clemson and Illinois...
I think Michigan beating Clemson was my biggest surprise today....We had selection winners on Maryland and N. Iowa and we lost with Butler, which was also one of my bracket busters....

I saw a line on the A&M / UConn game on Saturday that was -10.0...isn't that a bit much..? Looking at a possible play there....The only upset I see possible is a small one on Wisconsin to take down Florida State...I do have what I feel are 4 solid plays in the NCAA tourny and one in the NIT so far....

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My Sweet Sixteen Predictions

Here is my predictions for the NCAA tourny "Sweet Sixteen"

Midwest: Louisville...Wake Forest...W. Virginia...Michigan St
West: Connecticut...Purdue...Missouri...Memphis
East: Pittsburgh...Wisconsin...UCLA....Duke
South: North Carolina...Gonzaga...Syracuse...Oklahoma

With the exception of North Carolina, the South Region appears to be most competitive with Clemson, Illinois, Arizona St and Temple all having a shot at making the Sweet Sixteen. I still believe North Carolina will take it all

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Our Member Selections Go 4-1 on Tuesday....!!!

We had a real nice start to the tourny season, rewarding our members with 4-1 on our Tuesday selections. We won our underdog play on Rhode Island..We won our guaranteed play of the day with Golden State....

Look for possible upsets tonight with St. Johns and Georgetown....Thursday starts the NCAA and we are ready....
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Let The Games Begin

Tonight kicks off the NIT tournament with 8 games on tap, I look for a couple of possible upsets tonight with Rhode Island having a shot at Niagra and Washington St in the possible straight up win over Saint Mary's...both are underdogs of 4 points....

I think Saint Mary's might be wishing they were at home watching the games on TV. They were very confident they were going to get an NCAA bid and were outwardly dissapointed when it didn't happen..They may not be all fired up for this game. The same could hold true with Notre Dame having been in the top 25 only to fall apart at the end of the season, I am sure they were confident they would end up going to the big dance....

It appears that the winner of this tourny could be a toss up between S. Carolina, N. Mexico, and Florida....I will have to stick with Florida to take it all....Auburn and Kentucky could have a say in all this, but they also were expecting to go dancing...

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Sport Betting...The Newest Wave In Home Business

More and more people today are starting to make sporting betting their home business. Assisted by a sport-betting advisor, they are able to enjoy consistent profits. Sport betting advisors, also known as "sport services," are professional sport handicappers who work fulltime doing the research and analysis, then provide their clients with recommended plays from the current day's sports schedules.Sport betting advisors are in essence filling the same type of capacity as a stock consultant or broker with the exception that stock brokers actually handle your money and make your investments for you. Many people, who are into playing the stock market, find themselves in the same situation as the sport bettor: not having the time or the knowledge to do the necessary work to make an intelligent decision. Just like the stock consultant, the sport betting advisor charges a weekly, monthly or annual fee for their professional services. Sports betting has been likened to playing the stock market, while handicappers have been compared to stock brokers. You don't want to dabble on Wall Street without a financial analyst, just like you don't want to stroll the Vegas Strip or hit offshore books without a good sports advisor.

Billions of dollars are wagered on the Internet annually, despite efforts by the federal government to curtail or eliminate sport gambling. Many billions more are spent at land-based casinos or with illegal or unlicensed bookmakers.

Sports betting is estimated to account for nearly 20 percent of all gambling dollars spent. Unfortunately, most of that money goes into bookmakers' pockets or tills. Winning at sports gambling is more a game of skill than chance, such as spinning the roulette wheel or pulling the handle of a slot machine. Many people consider sports gambling an art or science. Some sports enthusiasts who take their sports betting seriously make huge profits while comfortably kicking back on the couch on Sunday afternoons and enjoying watching their favorite pasttime.Handicapping a full schedule of daily basketball or baseball can take 6-8 hours per day, and a full weekend of football games can take the serious analyst upwards of 50 hours of research each week. The job entails statistical numbers crunching, studying game situations, reviewing injuries, looking at weather conditions, watching line movements and gathering information from newspapers from around the country. One must also possess the knowledge of how to use the information it's assembled.We're not referring to the casual or recreational player who might lay down $5 or $10 on their alma mater or hometown team or once a year on the Super Bowl, just to add to their excitement of watching the game. Sports betting isn't a business to them, though there are amateurs who bet sports on a very regular basis, and take it just as seriously as a professional. This is the group that usually gets in the most trouble.Folks lumped in this category have a degree of addictiveness. They will use any excuse they can to place a wager, especially if a game is televised, because they feel a need for action. They can't get pleasure out of simply viewing a sports contest. There's a reason Vegas books put a big "TV" next to lines on a board. Bookmakers know they'll get more action on such games and that the money likely isn't being wagered by a pro with inside knowledge. Casual bettors such as these have little chance of making profits in the long run.Even taking the 50/50 way out by flipping a coin won't result in profit. Bookmakers have a built-in commission known as the "vig" (vigorish) or "juice." That's how bet shops stay in business. They simply take 10 percent of losing bets. If you win, no problem; you get your $110 back plus the $100 you won. Losers, however, will have to win their next two wagers to make a profit.The actual figure for making a profit over the commission is approximately 53 percent, which means one must win 53 out of every 100 bets placed. That's not as easy as it sounds. A professional sports bettor usually is very satisfied with a 60 percent win record. That's only 7 wins over the break-even point per hundred wagers placed, but it will show a substantial profit.Choosing a reputable sport betting advisor is the key to making profit from betting sports, the same process should be used as if you were seeking to put yourself in the hands of a professional stock broker...A reputable sport betting advisor can give you the luxury of enjoying your favorite sporting event while making money doing it....For more sport betting articles. To get Tony's Free subscription to his "Diamond Line" sport betting newsletter, go to: http://www.tonydiamond.com/

Tony Diamond has been a professional sport betting advisor since 1991. He has provided his services to clients from around the world. He has rewarded his clients with 15 consecutive winning seasons..Tony Diamond's service is not intended to encourage gambling or participation in activities that violate state or federal laws. This service and article is directed to those in States or country's where such acitivities are within the legal limits of the regulations pertaining to this activity.

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